{"id":7651,"date":"2006-12-06T22:47:59","date_gmt":"2006-12-06T22:47:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zonda-develop.go-vip.net\/prosales\/article\/visionary-thinking_o"},"modified":"2006-12-06T22:47:59","modified_gmt":"2006-12-06T22:47:59","slug":"visionary-thinking_o","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zonda-develop.go-vip.net\/prosales\/business\/visionary-thinking_o\/","title":{"rendered":"Visionary Thinking"},"content":{"rendered":"\r

\r The Players<\/b>\r Our supply chain forecast panel:<\/p>

\r Kermit Baker<\/b>, Senior Research Fellow, Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass.<\/p>

\r Jim Harmon<\/b>, President, Amber Homes, Aurora, Colo.<\/p>

\r Paul Hylbert<\/b>, COO, Pro-Build Holdings, Redmond, Wash.<\/p>

\r Jerry Johnson<\/b>, Retired President, HD Supply Lumber and Building Materials (formerly Williams Bros. Lumber Co.), Duluth, Ga.<\/p>

\r George R. Judd<\/b>, President and COO, BlueLinx Corp., Atlanta<\/p>

\r Donna Sanders<\/b>, Vice President of Options, Pardee Homes, Los Angeles<\/p>

\r Look past the reams of housing data coming out these days and focus instead on just one number: 2010. What will the LBM world be like in that year? ProSales sought to answer that question by talking to a half-dozen of the smartest minds in the business, including representatives from leading home builders, dealers, and distributors. They forecast that within three years we’ll see a much more streamlined supply chain, increased demands on dealers to deliver more and charge less, and a lot more integration of information technology into the process. Here’s what they had to say.<\/p>

\r \r \r <\/media-caption>\r <\/media-producer>\r <\/media><\/p>

\r Q What is driving changes in the LBM supply chain through 2010, and what will dealers do to adapt to those changes?<\/b>\r George R. Judd, BlueLinx:<\/i> Manufacturers will continue to move to areas outside of the United States that welcome manufacturing facilities and that have an abundance of natural resources and affordable labor. As the manufacturing facilities move farther from end markets, improving the supply chain and logistics becomes more valuable and necessary.<\/p>

\r Paul Hylbert, Pro-Build:<\/i> As traditional and large housing markets get more competitive, [high-volume] builders will continue to consolidate and seek out secondary markets to grow their businesses. The supply chain needs to be and to go where our customers are going, filling in the footprint through our distribution capabilities and value-added services, such as component manufacturing, door shops, and installed sales.<\/p>

\r Jim Harmon, Amber Homes:<\/i> The federal government can’t seem to put together a coherent policy on softwood imports, the Asian markets continue to use up supplies of steel and other commodities, and oil prices continue to fluctuate\u2014all of which impacts the ability to achieve an efficient, affordable, and reliable supply of materials. I think we will continue to see an extremely volatile supply chain for the foreseeable future.<\/p>

\r \r \r <\/media-caption>\r <\/media-producer>\r <\/media><\/p>

\r Jerry Johnson, HD Supply Lumber & Building Materials:<\/i> With the economic changes we are experiencing today, both residential and commercial builders need to align with suppliers that have a strong supply chain that ensures product breadth and availability.<\/p>

\r Kermit Baker, Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies:<\/i> Now that the housing industry is catching its breath and builders aren’t making huge margins, they’ll have to pay more attention to their operations and managing an efficient supply chain, and working with their subcontractors and suppliers both on- and off-site, to be successful. Big builders will have a lot more leverage to implement new programs and relationships [with suppliers] across their organizations [and] will be at the door of their suppliers saying, \u201cWe need this to happen.\u201d<\/p>

\r Hylbert:<\/i> We’re also seeing more centralization among the largest builders [a change from the past] to develop common best practices and procedures and consistency in how they do things and what they offer, as well as a commitment to customer [homeowner] satisfaction that drives the quality process.<\/p>

\r Q How will those changes alter the role of the pro dealer, if at all?<\/b>\r Baker:<\/i> The supply chain comes down to two things: [price] negotiations and logistics. The builders we talked to are putting almost all of their energies into logistics issues with their suppliers\u2014such as value-added services, having products in stock, getting them to the jobsite on time, and installing them\u2014instead of just selling materials. Builders will also expect dealers to help them improve customer satisfaction and will increasingly integrate their suppliers into that effort.<\/p>

\r \r \r <\/media-caption>\r <\/media-producer>\r <\/media><\/p>

\r Donna Sanders, Pardee Homes<\/i>: We’re asking more of our suppliers to handle sales and customer relations [with regards to their products] instead of our staff because they can sell options better than we can and improve customer service and satisfaction. But it’s a challenge to find the right partner in every market we build.<\/p>

\r Judd:<\/i> Pro-oriented dealers will be critical participants in the supply chain by adding value logistically, continuing to expand into the construction portion of the job, managing labor, producing more components, running installation teams, and managing just-in-time deliveries to the jobsites.<\/p>

\r<\/p><\/div> \r\r

\r Baker:<\/i> Big builders won’t want to pay for the services they’ll demand from dealers, but instead they’ll want their suppliers to shift away from the services now being offered and focus on those that are important to their high-volume operations [such as those mentioned above].<\/p>

\r Q In the current and predicted future of home building (with housing starts dropping and then recovering slightly in 2008, according to the NAHB), do you expect pro-oriented dealers to focus on one or a few customer types within housing (i.e., \u201cniche\u201d markets), or diversify into other areas of light construction?<\/b>\r \r \r <\/media-caption>\r <\/media-producer>\r <\/media><\/p>

\r Hylbert:<\/i> There’s no question that, in general, pro dealers will look to diversify [during this time]. For us, we have an existing repair and remodeling component to our business, and a small but significant commercial side, both of which are serving sectors that are healthy right now. But those divisions are already established, not something we’re initiating now.<\/p>

\r Baker:<\/i> My sense is that dealers see the need to choose a niche because it’s hard to swing back and forth with a cycle and implement a new strategy. If you’re good at serving a certain customer, you can’t turn on a dime and reorient your sales force and inventory to serve another focus. I don’t see how a dealer can suddenly go from 25 door SKUs for production builders to 600 SKUs to serve remodelers when the market shifts.<\/p>

\r Judd:<\/i> I see pro-oriented dealers expanding into all customer areas that they can identify. It is natural to try and grow, take share, and sell to a broader definition of customers. It is more difficult to follow record years with a plan that might produce lower results.<\/p>

\r Consolidated dealers need to produce a return on the investment they made to consolidate. As the competition intensifies for available business, some will seek out new opportunities as a way to grow.<\/p>

\r Baker:<\/i> Dealers who have focused the last few years on serving big builders are experiencing the risk of that strategy now [and are] being dragged down with them with a limited ability to rewire their business models.<\/p>

\r Hylbert:<\/i> Dealers have to look at how what’s happening in each market impacts their operations in that market. You can’t consider a general downturn [in housing production] and apply changes across the organization. Those [dealers] that are solely focused on new construction can be successful [during the downturn], but will have to right-size their operations appropriately to the level of demand in each market.<\/p>

\r Q Will information technology be mainstream among pro dealers by 2010?<\/b>\r Hylbert:<\/i> If there’s a leading edge of technology for this industry, [pro dealers] are not on it. We’re on the trailing edge. But better, more timely and transparent flow of information [implemented by others in the chain] will have an impact at some point.<\/p>

\r Baker:<\/i> There hasn’t been a lot of technology implemented, but there has been a lot of talk about what dealers want to do. It’ll keep moving forward to where there are fewer touches and data entry points and integrated inventory management systems along the entire supply chain, including scheduling systems with subcontractors. By 2010, those that have integrated IT will have a much better managed operation across the company and among all the players in the chain.<\/p>

\r \r \r <\/media-caption>\r <\/media-producer>\r <\/media><\/p>

\r Q What are the challenges facing dealers through 2010? What is their biggest advantage?<\/b>\r Judd:<\/i> In the coming years, pro-oriented dealers will need to demonstrate increased value to their customers while also managing costs more efficiently, as their customers also look for ways to expand business and profits above the levels of the past few years. All must try to take cost out of the supply chain, manage assets effectively, and sell a quality product in a slower market.<\/p>

\r<\/p><\/div> \r\r

\r Johnson:<\/i> Our global sourcing ability and superior supply chain ensures that builders have access to what they need, when they need it. We have a diversified portfolio of businesses that hold leadership positions in every vertical market from infrastructure to construction to maintenance and remodel. This provides a range of benefits for more efficient project management, making it easier for customers to meet timeline commitments and continue to grow at a healthy pace.<\/p>

\r Hylbert:<\/i> There are always opportunities in a downturn as companies decide to get out [of the business], deemphasize an area of their business, or reallocate their assets. We and other dealers welcome those opportunities. It’s also a great time to work out the best kinds of relationships and programs that will take us into the future.<\/p>

\r Harmon:<\/i> Likewise, as a [local] builder, we continue to seek new opportunities as the national builders are retrenching due to the slowing of other markets nationally.<\/p>

\r \r \r <\/media-caption>\r <\/media-producer>\r <\/media><\/p>

\r Baker:<\/i> It’s hard to generalize, but I don’t think dealers will be as dominant in five years as they are now. A decade ago, there was pressure on them really only from large manufacturers dictating terms and product mix. Now, and going forward, dealers are between two large and powerful forces\u2014manufacturers and big builders\u2014and lack the ability to get to the scale where they’ll be able to control their own fates. There’s a lot of power on both ends of the chain.<\/p>

\r Judd:<\/i> National footprint matters. Servicing a broad geographic area not only adds value to large builders, it helps insulate the pro-oriented dealer from regional slowdowns. Selling a consistent product and service offering to larger builders is important. Managing cost, service, and product offering through systems, people, and efficient capital utilization can help create a competitive advantage.<\/p>

\r Hylbert:<\/i> Pro dealers are positioned well to add value to the supply chain, regardless of any downturn [in housing]. The challenges increase, though, to maximize profitability. It’s also the time that builders challenge us to provide products at a lower cost or faster or do different things to help them weather the storm.<\/p>

\r Q What, if anything, is a \u201cwild card\u201d that could change, either dramatically or slightly, your crystal ball for 2010 regarding the LBM supply chain, housing\/ home building, or the economy in general?<\/b>\r \r \r <\/media-caption>\r <\/media-producer>\r <\/media><\/p>

\r Harmon:<\/i> The most significant wild card is the continued threat of terrorism and the impact another major event could have on the national economy. Behind that is a concern of additional regulatory burdens that could become reality if there is a shift toward less business-friendly federal and state governments.<\/p>

\r Hylbert:<\/i> One wild card is the ill-conceived [federal] attempts to stem the flow of immigration and playing politics [in that regard] to a specific crowd. We all want safe and secure borders, but there’s also work that has to get done. Our industry’s labor force is replenished and refreshed by immigrants; if that flow was stemmed, the impact on the economy would be disastrous.<\/p>

\r Baker:<\/i> What if manufacturer-direct [sales to builders] becomes more popular? Where does that leave dealers? They won’t be cut out entirely, but maybe they won’t be independent pieces of the supply chain. Or, dealers could become the labor piece of the [housing production] process, the subcontractor instead of traditional specialty trades.<\/p>

\r Judd:<\/i> Many things can affect the economy, home building, or the supply chain. Terrorism, import\/export feuds, interest rates, environmental issues, and transportation are just a few of the key influencers that could change my view of the supply chain into 2010. \u2014Rich Binsacca is a contributing editor for PROSALES.<\/i><\/p>\r<\/div> \r","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Players Our supply chain forecast panel: Kermit Baker, Senior Research Fellow, Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass. Jim Harmon, President, Amber Homes, Aurora, Colo. Paul Hylbert, COO, Pro-Build Holdings, Redmond, Wash. Jerry Johnson, Retired President, HD Supply Lumber and Building Materials (formerly Williams Bros. Lumber Co.), Duluth, Ga. George R. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":7652,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"scheduledNewsletterDates":[],"_scheduled_newsletter_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"zonda_content_type_url_append":"_o","zonda_dfp_zone":"","zonda_exclude_recommended_contents":false,"zonda_exclude_most_popular":false,"zonda_exclude_tagged_results":false,"zonda_eyebrow":"","zonda_last_newsletter_date":"2099-12-31T23:59:59.999-05:00","zonda_original_url":"","zonda_pdf_version":0,"zonda_print_headline":"Visionary Thinking","zonda_promo_abstract":"Look past the reams of housing data coming out these days and focus instead on just one number: 2010. 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